Hannah's web log

Look, I know what you're thinking. "Tony Abbott in western Sydney? That's not a political strategy, that's a cry for help." And yes – have you seen the Liberal party lately? But hear me out – because I've convinced myself this would be an incredible idea, and misery loves company.

First, let's set the scene. Tony Abbott lost his blue-ribbon seat of Warringah in 2019 to a teal independent. Then in 2022, more teal independents hollowed out the Liberals' support across the wealthy suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne. Rather than try to win back their traditional heartland, the Liberals decided to pivot to a more populist, Trump-style strategy. Their brilliant plan? Make a new heartland in the working-class suburbs – the places that voted "no" in the 2016 same-sex marriage plebiscite and the 2023 indigenous voice to parliament referendum.

Peter Dutton led this charge into the 2025 election and lost so spectacularly it could be termed an extinction event. Part of their "strategy" involved the genuinely baffling assumption that a "no" vote in the Voice referendum signalled increased intent to vote Liberal in the federal election. Because apparently, Australians are culture war voters now, not pragmatic hip-pocket voters who care more about whether they can afford groceries. On that matter, The Liberals made another costly assumption that voters would take their cost-of-living frustrations out on the incumbent government, so they didn’t need to offer an any solutions. It turned out Labor's steady-handed approaches to cost of living – tax cuts for low and middle incomes, industrial relations reforms, free TAFE and reducing HECS debt – were noticed and appreciated. Meanwhile, the Liberals' attempted culture wars landed with all the grace of a brick through a window.

Tony Abbott has long advocated that this heartland pivot approach was the future of the party, claiming after the 2022 election that their voting heartland was "shifting from places like Vaucluse to places like Penrith". 

And here's the kicker: it later emerged that Tony Abbott himself was a huge behind-the-scenes influence on the culture war approach the Liberals took to the election in 2025. Despite the absolute electoral arse-kicking they suffered, Abbott remains a true believer who has since only doubled down on the matter. According to Abbott, Dutton enjoyed a surge of support every time he leaned into culture wars rhetoric. His only problem was he didn’t go hard enough! 

So naturally, I have a modest proposal.

If the Liberals really want to test whether their "pivot to the anti-woke heartland" strategy is achievable, they should put their money where their mouth is and send Abbott to western Sydney. Think of him as the budgie smuggler in the coal mine.

But before you write this off as complete insanity, let me, as a Western Sydney person, make the case for why Abbott – yes, former Liberal Prime Minister Anthony John Abbott – might have more success out here than you'd expect.

The Case for Abbott (No, Really)

Western Sydney is possibly the last place on earth where the "Mad Monk's" strong Catholic beliefs are not a liability. And this isn't about energizing the small base of religiously motivated anti-woke psychos - those people already vote Liberal (or technically, probably Christian Dems or Family First, but same diff). The last few rounds of census data confirm that white Australia has largely abandoned Christianity, especially in the comfortable inner suburbs where Abbott got turfed out. If he wants his Catholicism to be seen as a positive – or even just respected – he needs to head to an area where religious observance across different faiths is still generally high, or at least more culturally accepted.

Volunteering and practical community work are valued in Western Sydney. Abbott, for all his faults, is genuinely community minded. He's the guy who shows up to fight fires, who does the Pollie Pedal charity ride, who'll roll up his sleeves for a good cause. These are the kind of activities people in Western Sydney respect from a politician.

Western Sydney has a chip on its shoulder. An identity that defines itself against the inner parts of Sydney. A sense that we really are "the forgotten people" Menzies talked about. The Liberals always run some talentless nobody in these seats, against Labor ministers and frontbenchers. It just proves they’re not serious. Some voters out here would be genuinely chuffed at having a high-profile Liberal candidate; a former Prime Minister, even a divisive and overall unnsuccesful one, but willing to stake their reputation on an important battleground. It's exactly the kind of recognition that could flip the usual western Sydney narrative.

Now, I can't help but be reminded of the other time a major party sent a high-profile, blow-in candidate to Western Sydney, and it totally blew up in their face. I am of course referring to Fowler-gate in 2022. Labor princess Kristina Keneally, the chronically unpopular, American-Australian former Premier, was somehow the candidate for Fowler. Labor had previously parachuted her into the Senate in 2018 after she lost a by-election in Bennelong. She had no connection to the area, and running her in this seat read as arrogant and presumptuous – like Labor was taking the seat for granted for their own party-political reasons. In the words of Regina George, "Stop trying to make Kristina Keneally happen! She's not going to happen!" Proving to be even more unelectable than they knew, she lost what should have been a safe Labor seat to Dai Le, a fake independent (read: secret Liberal) with more convincing local roots, screwing over the excellent should-have-been Labor candidate, Tu Le, who was unable to recover Fowler even in the great swing of 2025.

Abbott too, would be a blow-in with no local connection. I don’t think he’s ever been west of Lane Cove out of choice. But this move would be the opposite of the Keneally situation. Instead of "we expect this seat to be handed to us," it would be "I'm willing to fight for every vote in hostile territory." It's the difference between showing respect for an electorate and showing contempt for it. The optics would be completely different.

If Abbott made this unusual political comeback attempt, it would absolutely dominate news cycles in a way that benefits him. Even negative coverage keeps the seat in the spotlight and makes it feel important. This is a man who said "shit happens" to a group of mourning soldiers, talked about a "suppository of all wisdom," and awkwardly praised a female Liberal candidate by saying she had "sex appeal". These moments are absolute meme fodder and I simply need more of them in my life. Abbott's capacity for unfiltered, cringe-worthy gaffes might be refreshing to voters who are sick of focus-grouped political speak and hold respect people who are real. He's someone you could have a beer with, which still counts for a lot.

Now, I'm not saying this would be easy. A lot of Western Sydney folk genuinely (rightfully) hate the Liberals, and Abbott is emblematic of their worst conservative tendencies. But if the wind is blowing in the right direction, it is possible that his unique combination of political credentials and enemy-territory audacity might win over enough swing or disinterested voters to snatch victory from Labor's hands.

The Verdict

As the great advocate of the culture war approach, Abbott should be forced to personally validate whether his own strategy works. No more theorizing from the sidelines on conservative podcasts – he'd have to convince actual western Sydney voters that his brand of politics resonates with them.

If he succeeds, he validates the approach and resurrects his career. If he fails, he takes the strategy down with him and settles the question of whether the Liberals' populist pivot is viable or just wishful thinking.

Either way, it would be the ultimate stress test of post-2022 Liberal strategy. And honestly? After the 2025 election results, they owe it to themselves to find out whether their theory works in practice.

So come on, Liberals. Put your money where your mouth is. Send Tony Abbott to western Sydney.

What's the worst that could happen?

(Don't answer that.)

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— Hannah Shelley, MLIS (Metadata, Lattes & Impostor Syndrome) (@hannahshelley.bsky.social) July 13, 2025 at 5:02 PM