Hannah's web log

Labor's 2025 win wasn't just significant, it was historic. Anthony Albanese and Labor expanded their majority in the most impressive result since World War II, while the Liberals suffered devastating losses, including the seat of their leader, Peter Dutton.

What makes this victory particularly fascinating is how it contradicts an emerging global narrative: the supposed rightward drift of young men, particularly those in Gen Z. While the support of 58% of American men aged 18–27 helped Donald Trump sail to victory last year, Australia's young male voters bucked the trend. Despite pre-election surveys suggesting Australian young men viewed Dutton more favorably than their female peers did, this apparent preference failed to make an impact in the polling booths.

So what makes Australia different? Why didn't we follow the international pattern? Caitlin Cassidy wrote in the Guardian about this very interesting question, and it inspired me to write down some thoughts about it too. So let's explore some working theories.

Our Electoral System Creates a Moderating Effect

1. This isn't a new idea, but it is a very obvious one: Compulsory voting ensures everyone participates in elections: from the politically motivated, to the meme-voting trolls, to the vaguely civic-minded, to the vast majority who are relatively apathetic about politics. This broad participation naturally dilutes the influence of fringe ideologies and forces parties to appeal to the center rather than energizing extreme bases.
2. Preferential voting also creates space for protest votes without the same consequences seen in first-past-the-post systems. Young men influenced by extreme right-wing content can throw a [1] to One Nation, but still preference Labor above the Liberals in their subsequent choices, as a small percentage do. This system allows for people to vote out of protest, irony, experimentation, or frankly, foolishness - without actually handing power to the far right. In systems without preferential voting, that same impulse can split the vote or spoil it entirely.

Culture Wars Haven't Dominated Our Discourse

The rightward shift among Gen Z men internationally often centers on specific culture war flashpoints: gender roles, identity politics, and perceived political correctness. Recent research suggests Australian Gen Z men do hold more regressive attitudes about gender roles compared to previous generations, potentially indicating vulnerability to right-wing messaging. I blogged on this not long ago.

I would observe that the ALP hasn't become "feminized" in the minds of young men the way U.S. Democrats have. While progressive on many social issues, Labor has maintained working-class credibility while adapting to evolving social causes. Young men disillusioned with aspects of identity politics don't associate those frustrations with Labor in the way their American counterparts might with Democrats. Instead, those perceptions tend to be projected onto the Greens.

However, these issues simply don't dominate mainstream Australian politics the way they do elsewhere. Our elections continue to be fought primarily on material concerns such as cost of living, healthcare, housing, environment, and education. The Liberal Party's attempts to import American-style culture war tactics fell flat, as evidenced by voter reaction to their proposals to sack public servants, end remote work options, deport dual citizens, and make vague complaints about "wokeness" in school curricula. Jacinta Price's "Make Australia Great Again" slip was regarded as a massive gaff rather than an effective rallying cry, and became emblematic of the Liberals’ attempts to copy Trump and how out of touch that was.

Our Social Safety Net Prevents Extreme Radicalization

I’m still thinking this one through, but perhaps young Australian men simply don't experience the same level of economic precarity that drives radicalization elsewhere. With universal healthcare, a more manageable student loan system than many countries, and stronger social supports, the desperate conditions that might push young men toward radical political alternatives are somewhat mitigated here.

Young men may still experience frustrations with aspects of Australian society, but our safety nets, built largely through Labor policies, help ensure those frustrations are expressed through conventional political participation rather than through attraction to extreme ideologies.

Overgeneralized Narratives Don’t Tell Us Much

The 2025 election results challenge us to be skeptical of sweeping international narratives about generational political shifts. The "young men going right" storyline, while containing kernels of truth regarding certain attitudinal shifts, proves to be far more complex and contingent than headlines suggest. Modest differences in survey responses on specific cultural issues don't necessarily translate to voting patterns, especially when younger voters remain predominantly progressive in their actual electoral choices.

The 2025 election results suggest that while Australia isn't immune to global political trends, our unique electoral system, political focus on material concerns, distinctive cultural ideas, and stronger social safety net have combined to create a different trajectory for our young male voters. As other democracies grapple with increasing polarization, Australia's experience offers valuable lessons about the institutional factors that can help maintain a functioning democratic center.

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